# Mexico + Brazil Signups Analysis

**Period** 2025-06-01 → 2026-07-14 · **Data as-of** 2026-07-15 · **Source** [`mx-br-signups-since-2025-06.csv`](./mx-br-signups-since-2025-06.csv)

## 1. Takeaway

> **3,212 signups since June 2025 (BR 76% · MX 24%). Signup→query 68.7%; volume has grown quarter over quarter. Referral and AI-referred traffic convert higher than paid. Commercial follow-up (PQL, payment-ready) is not yet connected for this cohort.**

- **Funnel** — signup→active (ever) 49.1% · signup→query 68.7% · import 2.0% · churned 20.4%.
- **Volume** — monthly signups rose from 57 (Jun '25) to 456 (Jun '26). Q2 '26: 1,277 signups (+148% vs Q4 '25).
- **Country split** — Brazil carries most volume; Mexico has higher query rate (+8pts) on a smaller base.
- **Commercial** — 2,206 query users and 65 import-completed tenants; no card-on-file or PQL layer in this export.

## 2. Funnel

| Stage | Count | Rate |
|---|---:|---:|
| Signup | 3,212 | 100% |
| Active (ever) | 1,578 | 49.1% |
| Cluster | 2,701 | 84.1% |
| First query | 2,206 | 68.7% |
| Import | 65 | 2.0% |
| Churned | 657 | 20.4% |

MX 770 · BR 2,442. Active (ever) = at least one day of gateway activity.

## 3. Brazil vs Mexico

| Metric | Brazil | Mexico |
|---|---:|---:|
| Signups | 2,442 | 770 |
| → active (ever) | 48.0% | 52.9% |
| → query | 66.8% | 74.5% |
| → import | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| Churned | 20.4% | 20.6% |

## 4. Channels

| Channel | Signups | Share | Active ever | → Query |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Direct | 1,395 | 43% | 51% | ~85% cluster |
| Organic Search | 661 | 21% | 51% | 92% cluster |
| Referral | 246 | 8% | 57% | 75–82% |
| gemini.google.com | 110 | 3% | 68% | 86% |
| Paid Search | 197 | 6% | 16% | 22% |

AI UTM sources (Gemini + ChatGPT + Claude): 148 signups, 4.6% of total. Null / unattributed channel: 657 signups (20%).

## 5. Opportunities

| Area | What the data shows | Possible next step |
|---|---|---|
| Referral | 246 signups, 57% active, 75–82% query | Expand referral / community programs |
| Mexico | 24% of volume, 74.5% query vs 66.8% in BR | Test MX-focused Spanish content and acquisition |
| AI referral | 148 signups via Gemini / ChatGPT / Claude; Gemini at 86% query | Track and expand GEO / technical content |
| Organic + Direct | 64% of signups, ~51% active | Continue SEO and direct traffic investment |
| Commercial layer | 2,206 query users, 65 imports; no payment-ready data | Connect LATAM to PQL pipeline (EMEA playbook) |
| Paid Search | 197 signups, 16% active | Review spend; consider reallocation to higher-converting channels |

Jul '26 figures (278 signups, 18% active) reflect a partial month through Jul 14 — cohort not mature.

## 6. Data notes

- SQL: [`tidb_growth_data/sql/exports/mx-br-signups-since-2025-06.sql`](../../tidb_growth_data/sql/exports/mx-br-signups-since-2025-06.sql)
- Excludes internal users and pingcap/tidbdata emails
- `tenant_status` mostly blank; `is_active_7d` not reliable at export time
- CSV contains PII; gitignored (`latam/*.csv`)