# Monitoring-semantics ordered validation and safe publication

- Optimization ID: `monitoring-semantics-safe-publication-2026-07-31`
- Owner: auto-oncall TCID hotfix
- Source: TCID-12973 monitoring-semantics attribution gap
- Status: `ineffective`

## Bounded problem

When supplied monitoring values were contradictory or their recording-rule,
query, and display semantics were not verified, synthesis could still promote
technical causes such as lock contention, I/O pressure, or an upgrade into a
confirmed causal statement. Causal wording could also bypass the intended
boundary through synonyms after normalization.

## Implemented change

Monitoring interpretation now follows an ordered boundary: verify the
recording rule, metric definition, and unit first; then verify the exact query
scope, labels, aggregation, and window; then verify the dashboard/display
transformation chain. Until those checks complete, value interpretation,
correlation, and causation remain blocked. A structured boundary or an explicit
supplied contradiction resolves the case to an unverified/audit-only state.
Under that state, fixed safe-publication surfaces are applied after synthesis
and normalization, so equivalent causal wording cannot bypass the constraint.

## Current evidence and boundary

Staging replay `a4ec77c5-7b93-4511-8e86-2a178e2021c2` showed this action was
ineffective for the image-backed TCID-12973 signal. The child read the image
and described the implausible value only in free-form observations, while the
strict packet had no typed metric-semantics field. The resolver consumed the
manifest and frozen text but not scenario packet evidence, so the boundary
remained null and the fixed safe-publication surfaces did not run.

## Unresolved gaps and next validation

Do not repeat the same manifest/text-only admission action. Preserve the fixed
safe-publication contract, but first carry image-derived contradictions through
a strict, redacted typed signal consumed by synthesis. That distinct action is
tracked in the image-to-typed-boundary record.

<!-- auto-oncall-optimization-record
{
  "schemaVersion": "auto-oncall-optimization-record-v1",
  "optimizationId": "monitoring-semantics-safe-publication-2026-07-31",
  "problems": [
    {
      "problemId": "unverified-monitoring-semantics-allows-causal-attribution",
      "summary": "Unverified or contradictory metric semantics could still be promoted to a technical root-cause statement, including through causal synonyms after normalization.",
      "status": "ineffective",
      "issueKeys": [
        "TCID-12973"
      ],
      "sourceRefs": [
        "https://tidb.atlassian.net/browse/TCID-12973#problem:monitoring-semantics-causal-admission"
      ],
      "signalTextIncludesAny": [
        "metric semantics unverified",
        "contradictory metric values",
        "recording rule query semantics display chain",
        "upgrade is the confirmed root cause"
      ],
      "observedThrough": "2026-07-31",
      "effectiveAt": "2026-07-31T07:13:03.518Z",
      "verifiedAt": null,
      "attemptedAction": "Resolve the boundary from manifest or frozen text, then enforce ordered recording-rule, query-semantics, and display-chain validation plus fixed safe-publication surfaces. Staging run a4ec77c5 showed the action missed image-only evidence because no typed signal crossed the child packet and the resolver did not consume scenario packets.",
      "evidenceUrl": "https://tidb.atlassian.net/browse/TCID-12973"
    }
  ]
}
-->